Betting on NFL underdogs can be a profitable strategy for those willing to take calculated risks. While favorites often dominate the headlines and attract the bulk of bets, savvy bettors understand that underdogs can offer great value, especially in a league as unpredictable as the NFL.
Why Bet on Underdogs?
The NFL is a league known for its parity. Unlike other sports, any team can win on any given Sunday, making the gap between favorites and underdogs narrower than it seems. In many cases, oddsmakers set lines based on public perception, which can create value for bettors who are willing to back the underdog.
For example, popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys or Kansas City Chiefs often attract heavy betting action regardless of their actual chances of covering the spread. This action can inflate the line, creating an opportunity for value bettors to capitalize on underdogs who might be overlooked.
The Key to Identifying Valuable Underdogs
When betting on NFL underdogs, it’s crucial to identify teams that have a legitimate chance of winning or covering the spread. Here are a few factors to consider:
- Matchup and Game Plan: Underdogs that have a favorable matchup or a strong game plan can often outperform expectations. For instance, a strong running game can neutralize a high-flying offense, giving an underdog a better chance of winning outright or keeping the game close.
- Divisional Games: Divisional matchups often provide the best opportunities for betting on underdogs. Teams that play each other twice a year are familiar with each other’s strengths and weaknesses, which can make the games more competitive than expected.
- Home Field Advantage: While home field advantage is factored into the betting line, some underdogs perform better at home. Look for teams with strong home-field records or hostile environments that can disrupt visiting favorites.
- Injuries and Depth: Injuries to key players, especially at quarterback, can swing the odds in favor of the underdog. Pay attention to the injury report and evaluate whether a team has enough depth to overcome missing players. You can follow Doc’s NFL Picks for all the key information.
The Benefits of Betting the Spread vs. the Moneyline
Betting on underdogs doesn’t always mean you have to pick them to win outright. Betting on the spread allows you to back an underdog to cover a certain number of points, which can be more achievable than an outright win.
For example, if an underdog is +7.5, they only need to lose by 7 points or less for the bet to cash. This gives you a cushion, as the team can still lose the game but cover the spread, offering a safer option than the moneyline.
That said, betting the moneyline on underdogs can result in much larger payouts. If you believe an underdog has a legitimate shot at winning outright, the moneyline offers higher returns. For example, betting $100 on a +300 underdog would net $300 in profit if they win.
The Risks of Betting on Underdogs
While betting on underdogs can be rewarding, it comes with inherent risks. Underdogs are underdogs for a reason—they are generally seen as less likely to win. Bettors need to manage their expectations and be prepared for losses.
Public perception can often be correct, and heavily favored teams might blow out their competition. Betting on underdogs requires a well-researched approach, rather than simply backing a team because of the odds.
Conclusion
Betting on NFL underdogs can be a profitable and exciting strategy, especially in a league as competitive as the NFL. By focusing on key factors like matchups, divisional games, and home-field advantage, bettors can find value where others might not. Whether betting the spread or the moneyline, backing the underdog is a strategy worth considering for those who are willing to do their homework and embrace the risks.
